China
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
China's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (28242 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Political Repression and Civil War And Insurgency. Across all categories, 181,787 precedent windows were identified — meaning China's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.93
28242 prec.
Political Repression
0.87
18064 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.81
11898 prec.
Mass Protest
0.77
15130 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.70
14600 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.64
10123 prec.
Territorial Disputes
0.60
9274 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.57
19181 prec.
Government Formation
0.50
16678 prec.
Political Corruption
0.48
12694 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — China
177 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Trump tariffs escalate to 145% — US-China trade war and truce
trade and commerce
2025
China's semiconductor self-sufficiency drive accelerates
technology and digital
2025
China's population decline accelerates
demographics and population
2025
BYD overtakes global automakers in EV sales
trade and commerce
2024
Taiwan election — Lai Ching-te wins presidency
territorial disputes
2024
Third Plenum — economic reform blueprint amid structural crisis
fiscal policy change
2024
EU imposes tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
trade and commerce
2024
South China Sea confrontations with Philippines escalate
territorial disputes
2023
China-brokered Saudi-Iran normalization deal
bilateral treaty
2023
Chinese spy balloon shot down over US
civil war and insurgency
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.