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2026-05
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ANALOGUES

Analogues

Pick a country today, the engine shows you the closest historical match: “this looks most like Tunisia 2008 + Argentina 2015.” Pure shape-matching across the 71-recipe library. A similarity statement, not a forecast: the historical outcome is what happened to the analogue country, never a prediction about today's.

PICK A COUNTRY · TODAY
216countries available. The selected country's recent 12-quarter composite trajectory is matched against pre-event trajectories in the recipe library.
TOP-3 HISTORICAL ANALOGUES · SOUTH SUDAN TODAY

Whose pre-event shape does South Sudan rhyme with most?

The three historical cases whose pre-event indicator trajectories most resemble South Sudan's recent movement. Similarity, not destiny: read the historical outcomes as fact about the analogue country, never as forecast for South Sudan.

#1
Chad flagChad
2004 · pre-event
100.0
STRONG MATCH
TRAJECTORY SHAPE
Political Violence
in play
12-QUARTER COMPOSITE TRAJECTORY
Trajectory data not yet curated for this analogue.
WHAT HAPPENED NEXT · CHAD 2004
Narrative coming soon: research workstream in flight
#2
Mali flagMali
1991 · pre-event
100.0
STRONG MATCH
TRAJECTORY SHAPE
Political Violence
in play
12-QUARTER COMPOSITE TRAJECTORY
Trajectory data not yet curated for this analogue.
WHAT HAPPENED NEXT · MALI 1991
Narrative coming soon: research workstream in flight
ALSO RESEMBLES:Democratic TransitionMilitary Coup
#3
Sierra Leone flagSierra Leone
2009 · pre-event
100.0
STRONG MATCH
TRAJECTORY SHAPE
Political Violence
in play
12-QUARTER COMPOSITE TRAJECTORY
Trajectory data not yet curated for this analogue.
WHAT HAPPENED NEXT · SIERRA LEONE 2009
Narrative coming soon: research workstream in flight

Which recipes pulled the match

The trajectory shapes that drew South Sudan toward its analogues, ranked by weighted contribution.

Agricultural Policyin play
5.67%
Elections & Votingin play
5.67%
Terrorist Attackin play
5.67%
Transitional Justicein play
5.67%
Military Coupin play
5.61%
Search the whole library
All 71 recipes in the QGI catalog with mini-trajectories: browse every trajectory shape, queued or tested, that the analogue finder draws from.
Browse all 71 recipes
HOW TO READ THIS
What these matches mean
  1. Match scores are similarity ranks, not probabilities. A score of 87 means the indicator trajectories are highly similar to a historical case; it says nothing about the chance of any event occurring.
  2. Analogue outcomes are completed history about the analogue country. “In Tunisia, 2008, …” describes what happened there. It is never joined to the current country by a predictive verb and does not imply the current country will follow the same path.
  3. Indicators are statistical associations, not causes. The four composite indicators driving the match score co-varied with the labeled event in historical data. Co-variation is not causation; other factors may dominate in any specific case.
  4. Cross-region matches carry additional uncertainty. The discrimination score was validated within each region. Matches across regions (for example, Lebanon compared with Argentina) inherit higher structural uncertainty and should be read with extra caution.
How the match is computed

For each trajectory shape in the library, the engine computes a weighted cosine similarity between the current country's recent 12-quarter composite series and every historical case's pre-event series. The country is self-excluded. The top three cases across all trajectory shapes are surfaced.

Updates

The analogue corpus is updated on each data release. Rankings may shift as new events are catalogued.