Quantitative
Geopolitical
Intelligence
Across 180+ countries and territories, every country is scored against the shapes that came before the events that matter, and shown alongside the real historical cases it most resembles. Evidence you can open, not a black box.
On the radar right now
Countries whose recent signals are tracing an event trend especially closely this release. Open any card to see how that country is following the trend, signal by signal. A measure of resemblance, not a forecast.
Featured Report
The UK ranks #1 of 157 countries on currency-crisis resemblance. The top driver is not the gilt market.
QGI’s pattern engine reads every country’s multi-decade indicator trajectory against the historical record. In the latest run, the United Kingdom sits at the top of the global leaderboard. The largest single signal driver — 34.5% of the score — is judicial reform attempts, not the current account.
(A measure of structural resemblance drawn from the historical record, not a forecast of an imminent event.)
Read the full analysis →June 2026 run
Structural Resemblances
Where countries rhyme
Civil War & Insurgency
India & Pakistan: 99% structural resemblance.
Each other's #1 structural peer on Civil War & Insurgency in the 156-country cohort. The convergence is recent, not decades-embedded.
Read report →Multilateral Agreement
Niger scores 94, Burkina 2. Same structural fingerprint. Opposite trajectories.
Two AES juntas with near-identical profiles are moving in opposite directions on multilateral engagement. 95% structural match, 92 points apart.
Read report →Sovereign Credit Note
Ukraine's structural twin is Bosnia 1996.
The largest gap in the 156-country analogue corpus — 16 points above the next cluster. A falsifiable credit thesis anchored in the historical record.
Read report →Historical Analogue
What happened next
Sweden's September 2018 election produced a hung parliament, triggering 134 days of deadlock before the "January Agreement" installed a minority Social Democrat–Green cabinet (Löfven II, January 2019), propped up by Liberal and Centre Party defections from the fractured centre-right Alliance.
The analogue is a structural resemblance drawn from indicator trajectories, not a repetition of events.
How it works
We learn the shapes
From decades of the historical record, we learn the signal shapes that tend to run ahead of each kind of event, a currency crisis, a coup, a wave of unrest. We call each shape a trend.
We watch every country
Across 180+ countries and territories, we track how each one's recent signals are moving and compare them, quarter by quarter, against every trend.
We show you the evidence
See how closely a country is tracing a trend right now, signal by signal, and the real historical cases it most resembles. A measure of resemblance, not a forecast.
Want the full picture? Read the methodology.
Why QGI
Evidence, not a black box
Every score opens to the signals behind it and the real historical cases it resembles. You see the working, not a verdict.
History, not opinion
Scores come from the historical record, not from analyst hunches or curated country lists. The same method runs on every country.
180+ countries & territories
Global coverage, refreshed every quarter. Every country is read against the full catalogue of event trends, every release.
Resemblance, not a forecast
We tell you what today rhymes with, honestly. Tracing a trend is a structural analogue an analyst can weigh, not a prediction.
See what the world is rhyming with
Open Dashboard for today’s closest matches, or browse every country and trend.
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