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Quantitative
Geopolitical
Intelligence

Across 180+ countries and territories, every country is scored against the shapes that came before the events that matter, and shown alongside the real historical cases it most resembles. Evidence you can open, not a black box.

Live

On the radar right now

Countries whose recent signals are tracing an event recipe especially closely this release. Open any card to see how that country is following the recipe, signal by signal. A measure of resemblance, not a forecast.

South Sudan flagSouth Sudan
Multilateral Agreement
98match
partial alignment with multilateral agreement profile
Sudan flagSudan
Transitional Justice
97match
trajectory aligns with transitional justice profile
Sierra Leone flagSierra Leone
Regional Integration
95match
trajectory aligns with regional integration profile
Mongolia flagMongolia
Mass Protest
94match
partial alignment with mass protest profile
Namibia flagNamibia
Economic Growth Milestone
93match
partial alignment with economic growth milestone profile
Australia flagAustralia
Agricultural Policy
92match
partial alignment with agricultural policy profile

How it works

01

We learn the shapes

From decades of the historical record, we learn the signal shapes that tend to run ahead of each kind of event, a currency crisis, a coup, a wave of unrest. We call each shape a recipe.

02

We watch every country

Across 180+ countries and territories, we track how each one's recent signals are moving and compare them, quarter by quarter, against every recipe.

03

We show you the evidence

See how closely a country is tracing a recipe right now, signal by signal, and the real historical cases it most resembles. A measure of resemblance, not a forecast.

Want the full picture? Read the methodology.

Why QGI

Evidence, not a black box

Every score opens to the signals behind it and the real historical cases it resembles. You see the working, not a verdict.

History, not opinion

Scores come from the historical record, not from analyst hunches or curated country lists. The same method runs on every country.

180+ countries & territories

Global coverage, refreshed every quarter. Every country is read against the full catalogue of event recipes, every release.

Resemblance, not a forecast

We tell you what today rhymes with, honestly. Tracing a recipe is a structural analogue an analyst can weigh, not a prediction.

See what the world is rhyming with

Open Dashboard for today’s closest matches, or browse every country and recipe.

Stay updated

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