Country Intelligence Browser

126 countries analyzed · Risk tiers based on historical precedent matching

Iraq
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
8397 precedent windows · salience=2.3
Verified events
Lebanon
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
7590 precedent windows · salience=2.2
Verified events
Israel
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
8459 precedent windows · salience=2.1
Verified events
Pakistan
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
3944 precedent windows · salience=2.1
Verified events
Somalia
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
1457 precedent windows · salience=2.0
Verified events
Libya
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
3782 precedent windows · salience=2.0
Verified events
Afghanistan
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
17902 precedent windows · salience=2.0
Verified events
New Zealand
HIGH
Terrorist Attack
374 precedent windows · salience=1.7
Myanmar
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
4094 precedent windows · salience=1.9
Verified events
Ethiopia
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
12407 precedent windows · salience=1.9
Verified events
Eritrea
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
11085 precedent windows · salience=1.8
Verified events
Tajikistan
HIGH
Political Repression
308 precedent windows · salience=1.6
Syria
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
1873 precedent windows · salience=1.8
Verified events
Russia
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
3531 precedent windows · salience=1.8
Verified events
Hungary
HIGH
Democratic Transition
8161 precedent windows · salience=0.8
Sudan
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
961 precedent windows · salience=1.7
Verified events
Turkiye
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
450 precedent windows · salience=1.7
Verified events
Saudi Arabia
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
1830 precedent windows · salience=1.6
Verified events
India
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
6579 precedent windows · salience=1.6
Verified events
Mauritania
HIGH
Military Coup
840 precedent windows · salience=1.5
Slovenia
HIGH
Economic Recession
264 precedent windows · salience=1.3
Thailand
HIGH
Mass Protest
708 precedent windows · salience=1.5
Verified events
Egypt
HIGH
Terrorist Attack
7000 precedent windows · salience=1.5
Verified events
Italy
HIGH
Terrorist Attack
3125 precedent windows · salience=1.5
Verified events
Argentina
HIGH
Fiscal Policy Change
14787 precedent windows · salience=1.5
Verified events
Moldova
HIGH
Economic Recession
490 precedent windows · salience=1.4
Indonesia
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
2583 precedent windows · salience=1.4
Verified events
Haiti
HIGH
Political Repression
7652 precedent windows · salience=1.4
Ghana
HIGH
Elections And Voting
6188 precedent windows · salience=1.4
Verified events
Morocco
HIGH
Human Rights Violation
2345 precedent windows · salience=1.4
Verified events
Montenegro
HIGH
Human Rights Violation
358 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Nigeria
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
2212 precedent windows · salience=1.4
Verified events
Iran
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
5430 precedent windows · salience=1.3
Verified events
United Kingdom
HIGH
Terrorist Attack
216 precedent windows · salience=1.3
Verified events
Georgia
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
8660 precedent windows · salience=1.2
Angola
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
4785 precedent windows · salience=1.3
Verified events
France
HIGH
Elections And Voting
7992 precedent windows · salience=1.3
Verified events
Kuwait
HIGH
Fiscal Policy Change
2688 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Verified events
Guatemala
HIGH
Political Corruption
4630 precedent windows · salience=1.2
United Arab Emirates
HIGH
Fiscal Policy Change
899 precedent windows · salience=1.2
Verified events
South Korea
HIGH
Constitutional Change
773 precedent windows · salience=1.2
Verified events
Chad
HIGH
Civil War And Insurgency
18129 precedent windows · salience=1.2
Mexico
HIGH
Elections And Voting
3780 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Verified events
Central African Republic
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
23900 precedent windows · salience=1.2
United States
MODERATE
Economic Recession
480 precedent windows · salience=0.8
China
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
12876 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Verified events
Philippines
MODERATE
Civil War And Insurgency
2224 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Verified events
Chile
MODERATE
Elections And Voting
6695 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Verified events
Colombia
MODERATE
Human Rights Violation
5322 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Verified events
Palestine
MODERATE
Government Formation
484 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Greece
MODERATE
Elections And Voting
7851 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Costa Rica
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
18673 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Mongolia
MODERATE
Presidential Election
1116 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Kenya
MODERATE
Terrorist Attack
1747 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Verified events
Germany
MODERATE
Terrorist Attack
3388 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Verified events
Poland
MODERATE
Elections And Voting
1761 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Verified events
Tunisia
MODERATE
Political Repression
763 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Verified events
South Africa
MODERATE
Political Corruption
1133 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Verified events
Mali
MODERATE
Civil War And Insurgency
5399 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Czechia
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
12691 precedent windows · salience=1.1
Bosnia and Herzegovina
MODERATE
Democratic Transition
8211 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Verified events
North Macedonia
MODERATE
Economic Recession
380 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Latvia
MODERATE
Economic Growth
1957 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Brazil
MODERATE
Epidemic And Pandemic
7890 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Verified events
Croatia
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
21036 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Vietnam
MODERATE
Economic Recession
44 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Verified events
Dominican Republic
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
23037 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Cameroon
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
23917 precedent windows · salience=0.8
North Korea
MODERATE
Military Policy And Reform
2886 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Verified events
Laos
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
9730 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Algeria
MODERATE
Elections And Voting
11691 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Verified events
Estonia
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
14383 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Lithuania
MODERATE
Economic Growth
1485 precedent windows · salience=1.0
Portugal
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
5490 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Maldives
MODERATE
Political Reform
1168 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Oman
MODERATE
Trade Agreement
880 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Finland
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
19511 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Cyprus
MODERATE
Economic Growth
1950 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Australia
MODERATE
Government Formation
31183 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Honduras
MODERATE
Migration And Refugees
4346 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Belgium
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
25986 precedent windows · salience=0.8
Iceland
MODERATE
Economic Diversification
1314 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Norway
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
6538 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Cuba
MODERATE
Migration And Refugees
2308 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Verified events
Jordan
MODERATE
Bilateral Treaty
8346 precedent windows · salience=0.9
Verified events
Turkmenistan
MODERATE
Presidential Election
108 precedent windows · salience=0.8
Albania
MODERATE
Mass Protest
18767 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Azerbaijan
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
26845 precedent windows · salience=0.7
El Salvador
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
20786 precedent windows · salience=0.8
Bolivia
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
27255 precedent windows · salience=0.8
Canada
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
17145 precedent windows · salience=0.8
Qatar
MODERATE
Trade Agreement
378 precedent windows · salience=0.8
Malta
MODERATE
Economic Growth
1620 precedent windows · salience=0.8
Slovakia
MODERATE
Energy Policy
308 precedent windows · salience=0.6
Armenia
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
27888 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Bulgaria
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
27146 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Sri Lanka
MODERATE
Civil War And Insurgency
2911 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Malaysia
MODERATE
Government Formation
9801 precedent windows · salience=0.6
Verified events
Singapore
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
4155 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Denmark
MODERATE
Military Policy And Reform
10220 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Ivory Coast
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
14358 precedent windows · salience=0.6
Bahrain
MODERATE
Economic Reform
2484 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Switzerland
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
2284 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Ecuador
MODERATE
Government Formation
21775 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Verified events
Kazakhstan
MODERATE
Government Formation
7668 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Verified events
Mozambique
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
6959 precedent windows · salience=0.6
Madagascar
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
11363 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Nepal
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
4725 precedent windows · salience=0.7
Luxembourg
MODERATE
Economic Diversification
378 precedent windows · salience=0.5
Nicaragua
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
7176 precedent windows · salience=0.6
Cambodia
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
13851 precedent windows · salience=0.5
Ireland
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
13081 precedent windows · salience=0.6
Kyrgyzstan
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
11474 precedent windows · salience=0.6
Sweden
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
2132 precedent windows · salience=0.6
Jamaica
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
14281 precedent windows · salience=0.6
Spain
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
3074 precedent windows · salience=0.5
Bangladesh
MODERATE
Government Formation
4752 precedent windows · salience=0.5
Verified events
Netherlands
MODERATE
Fiscal Policy Change
6857 precedent windows · salience=0.5
Brunei
MODERATE
Covid19 Response
252 precedent windows · salience=0.3
Japan
INDICATIVE
Fiscal Policy Change
11187 precedent windows · salience=0.4
Austria
INDICATIVE
Fiscal Policy Change
29104 precedent windows · salience=0.4
Romania
INDICATIVE
Bilateral Treaty
5520 precedent windows · salience=0.4
Belarus
INDICATIVE
Government Formation
6671 precedent windows · salience=0.4
Peru
INDICATIVE
Fiscal Policy Change
6152 precedent windows · salience=0.4
Uzbekistan
INDICATIVE
Infrastructure Project
131 precedent windows · salience=0.1
Yemen
INDICATIVE
Civil War And Insurgency
0 precedent windows · salience=0.0
Verified events