Recipe Tracker

QGI works with 71 recipes — named patterns of geopolitical change, each requiring validation against historical data before any score derived from it is published. This tracker is the index of that program. A recipe is Graduated when it has cleared two hard validation gates in held-out historical data: discriminating pre-crisis trajectories from non-crisis ones, and recovering a minimum share of holdout events in an out-of-time test. One recipe has cleared those gates: Foreign Intervention. 7 recipes are In Validation — either live on the dashboard via an earlier scoring pathway, or walked through the ML framework without clearing all gates; their scores are not yet methodology-certified. The remaining 64 are Queued — the validation framework has not been applied to them yet. Most will not graduate on the first walk: that is the point of having gates. QGI publishes what it has validated, not what it expects to validate.