QGIntelligence← All posts
Blog·Live

Trend Tracker

44In play
9Directional
35Experimental
27Coming soon
71Total

Scores are out-of-country similarity on held-out history, not calibrated probabilities.

QGI reads every country against 71 trends, named patterns of geopolitical change, and every trend earns its standing the same way: a walk through validation gates in held-out historical data. This board is the index of that program. 44 trends are in play: walked under the Trajectory Engine and live across the dashboard, each scored on how well it separates the years before an event from quiet years in countries the model never trained on. Within them, the confidence ladder grades the result: 9 are directional, the strongest separations of this vintage, and 35 are experimental, weaker separations to read with more caution. The remaining 27 are coming soon: not yet walked. The bar is set in held-out history, and most trends will not top the ladder on a given walk: that is the point of having one. The board updates with every fleet run.

Political Power

9

Conflict & Violence

6

Governance & Rights

5

Economic Stress

15

Social Mobilization

7

Diplomacy & Geopolitics

5

Humanitarian Crisis

8

Structural Trends

16