Coming soon
Decentralization & Federalism
Constitutional Change
Blog·Live
Trend Tracker
42In play
6Directional
36Experimental
27Coming soon
69Total
Scores are out-of-country similarity on held-out history, not calibrated probabilities.
QGI reads every country against 69 trends, named patterns of geopolitical change, and every trend earns its standing the same way: a walk through validation gates in held-out historical data. This board is the index of that program. 42 trends are in play: walked under the Trajectory Engine and live across the dashboard, each scored on how well it separates the years before an event from quiet years in countries the model never trained on. Within them, the confidence ladder grades the result: 6 are directional, the strongest separations of this vintage, and 36 are experimental, weaker separations to read with more caution. The remaining 27 are coming soon: not yet walked. The bar is set in held-out history, and most trends will not top the ladder on a given walk: that is the point of having one. The board updates with every fleet run.
Political Power
9- Experimental
Constitutional Change
- OOC score
- 0.59
- 95% CI
- 0.55–0.63
- Window
- 18y
- Signals
- 2
- Experimental
Democratic Transition
- OOC score
- 0.65
- 95% CI
- 0.61–0.70
- Window
- 7y
- Signals
- 5
- Experimental
Elections & Voting
Electoral Politics
- OOC score
- 0.66
- 95% CI
- 0.64–0.68
- Window
- 3y
- Signals
- 4
- Experimental
Executive Power Consolidation
- OOC score
- 0.63
- 95% CI
- 0.55–0.71
- Window
- 7y
- Signals
- 9
- Experimental
Government Formation
- OOC score
- 0.55
- 95% CI
- 0.52–0.58
- Window
- 18y
- Signals
- 2
- Experimental
Military Coup
- OOC score
- 0.65
- 95% CI
- 0.60–0.70
- Window
- 25y
- Signals
- 5
- Experimental
Peacekeeping & Peace Process
- OOC score
- 0.64
- 95% CI
- 0.59–0.69
- Window
- 15y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Transitional Justice
- OOC score
- 0.72
- 95% CI
- 0.66–0.77
- Window
- 25y
- Signals
- 5
Conflict & Violence
6- Directional
Foreign Intervention
Foreign Military Intervention
- OOC score
- 0.68
- 95% CI
- 0.62–0.73
- Window
- 25y
- Signals
- 5
- Experimental
Civil War & Insurgency
- OOC score
- 0.65
- 95% CI
- 0.61–0.68
- Window
- 12y
- Signals
- 4
- Experimental
Ethnic & Communal Conflict
Ethnic & Communal Violence
- OOC score
- 0.61
- 95% CI
- 0.53–0.68
- Window
- 21y
- Signals
- 2
- Experimental
Interstate War
- OOC score
- 0.71
- 95% CI
- 0.62–0.78
- Window
- 18y
- Signals
- 4
- Experimental
Political Violence
- OOC score
- 0.55
- 95% CI
- 0.51–0.59
- Window
- 3y
- Signals
- 2
- Experimental
Terrorist Attack
Terrorism & Extremism
- OOC score
- 0.57
- 95% CI
- 0.54–0.62
- Window
- 3y
- Signals
- 2
Governance & Rights
5- Experimental
Human Rights Reform
- OOC score
- 0.59
- 95% CI
- 0.53–0.65
- Window
- 15y
- Signals
- 2
- Experimental
Human Rights Violation
Human Rights Violations
- OOC score
- 0.72
- 95% CI
- 0.67–0.76
- Window
- 15y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Military Policy & Reform
Military Policy & Security Reform
- OOC score
- 0.62
- 95% CI
- 0.57–0.67
- Window
- 15y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Political Corruption
- OOC score
- 0.63
- 95% CI
- 0.58–0.67
- Window
- 5y
- Signals
- 2
- Experimental
Political Repression
- OOC score
- 0.68
- 95% CI
- 0.64–0.72
- Window
- 10y
- Signals
- 5
Economic Stress
15- Directional
Currency Crisis
Currency & Banking Crisis
- OOC score
- 0.75
- 95% CI
- 0.67–0.82
- Window
- 3y
- Signals
- 5
- Directional
Economic Nationalization
- OOC score
- 0.70
- 95% CI
- 0.61–0.77
- Window
- 10y
- Signals
- 4
- Experimental
Banking & Financial Crisis
Currency & Banking Crisis
- OOC score
- 0.64
- 95% CI
- 0.56–0.70
- Window
- 25y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Economic Growth Milestone
Economic Recovery & Growth
- OOC score
- 0.62
- 95% CI
- 0.52–0.71
- Window
- 25y
- Signals
- 5
- Experimental
Economic Liberalization
- OOC score
- 0.58
- 95% CI
- 0.50–0.66
- Window
- 5y
- Signals
- 1
- Experimental
Economic Recession
Economic Recession & Austerity
- OOC score
- 0.59
- 95% CI
- 0.54–0.64
- Window
- 10y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Fiscal Policy Change
Fiscal & Monetary Policy
- OOC score
- 0.59
- 95% CI
- 0.53–0.65
- Window
- 10y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Monetary Policy Change
Fiscal & Monetary Policy
- OOC score
- 0.62
- 95% CI
- 0.53–0.70
- Window
- 3y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Sanctions & Arms Embargo
Trade & Investment
- OOC score
- 0.74
- 95% CI
- 0.67–0.81
- Window
- 15y
- Signals
- 5
- Experimental
Trade Agreement
Trade & Investment
- OOC score
- 0.62
- 95% CI
- 0.55–0.69
- Window
- 3y
- Signals
- 4
- Coming soon
Economic Recovery
Economic Recovery & Growth
- Coming soon
Foreign Aid & Development
- Coming soon
Foreign Direct Investment
Trade & Investment
- Coming soon
Industrial Policy
Trade & Investment
- Coming soon
Trade Dispute
Trade & Investment
Social Mobilization
7- Directional
Labor Action
- OOC score
- 0.69
- 95% CI
- 0.59–0.78
- Window
- 18y
- Signals
- 6
- Directional
Religious & Social Movement
Religious & Social Movements
- OOC score
- 0.68
- 95% CI
- 0.57–0.77
- Window
- 21y
- Signals
- 7
- Experimental
Mass Protest
- OOC score
- 0.61
- 95% CI
- 0.57–0.65
- Window
- 5y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Migration & Refugees
- OOC score
- 0.55
- 95% CI
- 0.51–0.60
- Window
- 5y
- Signals
- 1
- Coming soon
Poverty & Inequality Crisis
Poverty & Inequality
- Coming soon
Public Health Reform
Social Policy Reform
- Coming soon
Social Policy Reform
Diplomacy & Geopolitics
5- Directional
Diplomatic Rupture
- OOC score
- 0.66
- 95% CI
- 0.59–0.72
- Window
- 10y
- Signals
- 4
- Experimental
Bilateral Treaty
Bilateral Treaties
- OOC score
- 0.60
- 95% CI
- 0.56–0.63
- Window
- 21y
- Signals
- 2
- Experimental
Multilateral Agreement
Multilateral Agreements
- OOC score
- 0.66
- 95% CI
- 0.61–0.71
- Window
- 25y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Regional Integration
- OOC score
- 0.66
- 95% CI
- 0.60–0.71
- Window
- 25y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Territorial Disputes
- OOC score
- 0.64
- 95% CI
- 0.57–0.70
- Window
- 21y
- Signals
- 5
Humanitarian Crisis
6- Coming soon
Drought & Famine
- Coming soon
Earthquake
Natural Disaster
- Coming soon
Flood & Cyclone
Natural Disaster
- Coming soon
Humanitarian Crisis
- Coming soon
Volcanic Eruption
Natural Disaster
- Coming soon
Water Crisis
Water & Resource Crisis
Structural Trends
16- Experimental
Agricultural Policy
- OOC score
- 0.61
- 95% CI
- 0.54–0.67
- Window
- 10y
- Signals
- 3
- Experimental
Energy Policy
Energy Policy & Resources
- OOC score
- 0.64
- 95% CI
- 0.57–0.70
- Window
- 10y
- Signals
- 4
- Experimental
Infrastructure Project
Infrastructure & Urban Development
- OOC score
- 0.65
- 95% CI
- 0.56–0.73
- Window
- 12y
- Signals
- 1
- Experimental
Technology Breakthrough
Digital & Technology
- OOC score
- 0.69
- 95% CI
- 0.62–0.75
- Window
- 12y
- Signals
- 5
- Coming soon
Climate Agreement
Climate Agreements
- Coming soon
Cultural & Heritage
- Coming soon
Cyberattack
Digital & Technology
- Coming soon
Digital Policy
Digital & Technology
- Coming soon
Education & Research
Education & Knowledge
- Coming soon
Education Reform
Education & Knowledge
- Coming soon
Environmental Policy
- Coming soon
Oil & Gas
Energy Policy & Resources
- Coming soon
Renewable Energy
Energy Policy & Resources
- Coming soon
Resource Conflict
- Coming soon
Sport & International Event
Cultural & Heritage
- Coming soon
Urban Development
Infrastructure & Urban Development