Afghanistan
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Afghanistan's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (29276 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Terrorist Attack and Foreign Intervention. Across all categories, 229,527 precedent windows were identified — meaning Afghanistan's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.50
29276 prec.
Terrorist Attack
1.36
20767 prec.
Foreign Intervention
1.13
19293 prec.
Human Rights Violation
1.01
17284 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.83
16590 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.59
16038 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.51
14632 prec.
Economic Recession
0.50
10514 prec.
Military Coup
0.47
6157 prec.
Government Formation
0.40
20343 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Afghanistan
184 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Pakistan-Afghanistan border tensions escalate over Durand Line
territorial disputes
2025
Taliban bans women from speaking in public and enforces full face veil
gender and womens rights
2025
International Court of Justice case on Taliban gender apartheid advances
human rights
2024
Taliban enacts Law on Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice
gender and womens rights
2024
Catastrophic flooding kills hundreds across northern Afghanistan
natural disaster
2024
ISKP conducts major attack on Moscow concert hall killing 145
terrorism and extremism
2023
Taliban bans women from working for NGOs and UN agencies
gender and womens rights
2023
Massive 6.3 magnitude earthquakes kill 1,400 in Herat Province
natural disaster
2023
UN Special Rapporteur accuses Taliban of gender apartheid
gender and womens rights
2023
Taliban resumes public executions and amputations
human rights
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.