India
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
India's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (13292 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Terrorist Attack and Elections And Voting. Across all categories, 134,997 precedent windows were identified — meaning India's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.23
13292 prec.
Terrorist Attack
1.03
10676 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.80
14687 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.71
13485 prec.
Mass Protest
0.68
10297 prec.
Political Repression
0.57
8041 prec.
Political Corruption
0.54
9093 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.53
5888 prec.
Political Violence
0.53
6153 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.52
16296 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — India
226 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Pahalgam terrorist attack kills tourists
terrorism and extremism
2025
India launches Operation Sindoor — strikes on Pakistan
civil war and insurgency
2025
India suspends Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan
multilateral agreement
2025
India-Pakistan ceasefire brokered
peacekeeping and peace process
2025
India-Pakistan trade and diplomatic ties severed
diplomatic rupture
2025
Delhi elections — AAP loses to BJP
elections and voting
2025
ISRO advances Gaganyaan crewed mission
technology and digital
2025
India-US tariff negotiations under Trump administration
trade and commerce
2024
Ram temple consecrated in Ayodhya
religion and society
2024
Eighteenth General Election — BJP loses majority
elections and voting
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.