Indonesia
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Indonesia's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (7525 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Elections And Voting and Political Violence. Across all categories, 87,075 precedent windows were identified — meaning Indonesia's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.20
7525 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.87
10599 prec.
Political Violence
0.70
4588 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.60
8260 prec.
Political Repression
0.51
3436 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.48
9904 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.48
5356 prec.
Government Formation
0.39
6540 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.32
2342 prec.
Economic Recession
0.30
3785 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Indonesia
71 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Papua conflict intensification — KKB attacks increase
insurgency and guerrilla
2024
Prabowo wins presidential election — first-round victory
elections and voting
2024
Prabowo government takes office — free meals program and coalition cabinet
government formation
2022
G20 Bali summit — Indonesia's diplomatic peak
bilateral treaty
2022
Kanjuruhan stadium disaster — 135 killed
political violence
2021
COVID-19 delta wave overwhelms hospitals — 500,000 estimated deaths
public health and epidemics
2020
Omnibus Job Creation Law — sweeping labor and investment deregulation
labor and industrial relations
2020
COVID-19 pandemic — first recession since 1998
public health and epidemics
2019
Jokowi re-elected — Prabowo defeated again; new capital Nusantara announced
elections and voting
2018
Lombok and Palu earthquakes — series of catastrophic disasters
natural disaster
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.