Iran
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Iran's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (9068 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Human Rights Violation and Elections And Voting. Across all categories, 109,373 precedent windows were identified — meaning Iran's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.01
9068 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.73
10208 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.67
11275 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.65
21080 prec.
Mass Protest
0.57
8232 prec.
Political Repression
0.57
5408 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.46
6372 prec.
Government Formation
0.37
8592 prec.
Sanctions And Arms Embargo
0.34
5360 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.33
9636 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Iran
146 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Iran Advances Nuclear Program Toward Weapons-Grade Enrichment
technology and digital
2025
Trump Threatens Military Action; Diplomacy and Pressure Revive
bilateral treaty
2025
Iran Deepens Strategic Partnership with Russia and China
international alliances
2024
Iran Launches Direct Missile and Drone Attack on Israel
civil war and insurgency
2024
President Raisi Dies in Helicopter Crash
government formation
2024
Masoud Pezeshkian Elected President in Reformist Surprise
elections and voting
2023
Iran and Saudi Arabia Restore Diplomatic Relations via China
diplomatic rupture
2022
Mahsa Amini Dies; Woman Life Freedom Uprising and Crackdown
human rights
2021
Ebrahim Raisi Elected President
elections and voting
2021
JCPOA Negotiations Resume in Vienna
bilateral treaty
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.