Iraq
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Iraq's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (13838 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Human Rights Violation and Political Violence. Across all categories, 90,758 precedent windows were identified — meaning Iraq's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.46
13838 prec.
Human Rights Violation
1.14
10528 prec.
Political Violence
0.68
4940 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.65
13896 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.65
6249 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.59
7739 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.54
5337 prec.
Government Formation
0.46
10177 prec.
Mass Protest
0.35
6078 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.23
4713 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Iraq
94 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Iraq's Economic Diversification Efforts
fiscal policy change
2024
US-Iran Proxy Tensions on Iraqi Soil Escalate
bilateral treaty
2024
Iraq Negotiates US Troop Withdrawal
bilateral treaty
2024
Yazidi Survivors Begin Return to Sinjar
human rights
2023
Iraq's Regional Diplomacy — Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement
bilateral treaty
2023
Kurdistan Oil Dispute — Turkey Halts Pipeline Exports
energy policy and resources
2023
Severe Drought and Water Crisis in Southern Iraq
climate change and adaptation
2022
Government Formation Deadlock and Green Zone Clashes
political violence
2021
Iraqi Elections — Record Low Turnout Amid Political Crisis
elections and voting
2020
US Kills Soleimani at Baghdad Airport
diplomatic rupture
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.