Ireland
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Ireland's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (20584 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Government Formation and Bilateral Treaty. Across all categories, 104,517 precedent windows were identified — meaning Ireland's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.53
20584 prec.
Government Formation
0.39
23561 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.27
18461 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.17
9443 prec.
Social Policy Reform
0.15
15676 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.04
5868 prec.
Infrastructure Project
0.02
9507 prec.
Education Reform
-0.08
352 prec.
Agricultural Policy
-0.33
409 prec.
Ethnic And Communal Conflict
-1.46
656 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Ireland
51 events (1990–present)1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Varadkar Resigns — Simon Harris Becomes Taoiseach
executive transition
2024
Family and Care Referendums Rejected by Large Margins
elections and voting
2023
Windsor Framework Replaces Northern Ireland Protocol
bilateral treaty
2022
Housing Crisis Intensifies with Record Homelessness
poverty and inequality crisis
2022
Varadkar Returns as Taoiseach Under Rotation Agreement
executive transition
2021
Northern Ireland Protocol Triggers Trade Disruption
trade dispute
2020
Historic Three-Way Election Shatters Two-Party System
elections and voting
2020
Fianna Fail-Fine Gael-Green Coalition Formed
government formation
2019
Climate Emergency Declared by Irish Parliament
climate agreement
2019
Brexit Backstop Crisis Threatens Irish Border
trade dispute
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.