Israel
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Israel's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (14407 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Terrorist Attack and Government Formation. Across all categories, 96,129 precedent windows were identified — meaning Israel's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.67
14407 prec.
Terrorist Attack
1.16
9070 prec.
Government Formation
0.63
15415 prec.
Political Corruption
0.57
6229 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.56
7344 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.45
11183 prec.
Mass Protest
0.40
5305 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.39
5707 prec.
Peacekeeping And Peace Process
0.39
4158 prec.
Interstate War
0.37
2677 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Israel
117 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Gaza Ceasefire Agreement and Hostage Deal
peacekeeping and peace process
2025
Israel's Regional Standing — Shifting Alliances
diplomatic rupture
2024
Israel Expands Gaza Campaign — Rafah Controversy
civil war and insurgency
2024
Hezbollah Escalation and Northern Front Opens
civil war and insurgency
2024
Iran Attacks Israel Directly for First Time
civil war and insurgency
2024
Netanyahu Arrest Warrant — International Criminal Court
international sanctions
2023
Judicial Reform Crisis — Massive Protests
constitutional change
2023
October 7 Hamas Attack — Worst Day Since Founding
terrorism and extremism
2023
Gaza War Begins — Operation Swords of Iron
interstate war
2022
Netanyahu Returns — Most Right-Wing Government
government formation
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.