Italy
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Italy's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Terrorist Attack (5921 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Elections And Voting and Migration And Refugees. Across all categories, 65,736 precedent windows were identified — meaning Italy's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Terrorist Attack
1.13
5921 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.92
10073 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.84
5138 prec.
Political Corruption
0.68
4625 prec.
Foreign Intervention
0.66
3579 prec.
Government Formation
0.57
10111 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.54
5824 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.52
4680 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.37
5298 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.28
1938 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Italy
74 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Italy Faces Demographic Decline, PNRR Implementation Shortfalls, and Migration Pressures
poverty and inequality crisis
2024
Italy Hosts G7 Summit in Puglia Under Meloni's Presidency
multilateral agreement
2023
Cutro Shipwreck Kills 100; Italy Records 150,000 Mediterranean Arrivals
migration and refugees
2023
Italy Becomes First G7 Nation to Exit China's Belt and Road Initiative
bilateral treaty
2022
Draghi Falls Over Ukraine Dispute; Meloni Elected Italy's First Female PM
elections and voting
2022
Italy Supports Ukraine Sanctions and Accelerates Energy Diversification
sanctions and arms embargo
2021
Draghi Appointed PM, Leads Vaccination Campaign and 191-Billion-Euro Recovery Plan
government formation
2020
COVID-19 Pandemic Hits Italy First in Europe, Triggering Strict Lockdown
epidemic and pandemic
2019
M5S-PD Coalition Outmanoeuvres Salvini, Blocking Snap Elections
government formation
2018
Five Star and League Form Populist Coalition, Defy EU with Expansionary Budget
government formation
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.