Armenia
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Armenia's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (41874 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Mass Protest and Bilateral Treaty. Across all categories, 195,456 precedent windows were identified — meaning Armenia's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.72
41874 prec.
Mass Protest
0.47
26966 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.46
39885 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.38
23088 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.21
22754 prec.
Digital Policy
-0.06
12051 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
-0.26
15112 prec.
Territorial Disputes
-0.76
8294 prec.
Flood And Cyclone
-0.82
5432 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Armenia
62 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Armenia Ratifies Rome Statute; Direct Challenge to Putin
multilateral agreement
2024
Armenian Parliament Votes to Pursue EU Membership Dialogue
regional integration
2024
Russia Withdraws Border Guards from Armenian Checkpoints
bilateral treaty
2023
Lachin Corridor Blockade Starves Karabakh Armenian Population
humanitarian crisis
2023
Azerbaijani Offensive Ends Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
interstate war
2023
Armenia Formally Suspends CSTO Participation
diplomatic rupture
2022
Azerbaijan Attacks Undisputed Armenian Territory; CSTO Fails to Respond
interstate war
2022
EU Civilian Monitoring Mission Deployed to Armenian Borders
peacekeeping and peace process
2021
Pashinyan Re-elected Despite War Defeat Demands for Resignation
elections and voting
2020
Second Nagorno-Karabakh War; Armenia Suffers Catastrophic Defeat
interstate war
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.