Kenya
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Kenya's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Terrorist Attack (6195 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Constitutional Change and Elections And Voting. Across all categories, 70,814 precedent windows were identified — meaning Kenya's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Terrorist Attack
1.03
6195 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.81
9501 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.79
8322 prec.
Political Corruption
0.70
5535 prec.
Government Formation
0.70
14442 prec.
Mass Protest
0.70
3721 prec.
Political Repression
0.70
3269 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.63
5604 prec.
Economic Recession
0.59
5321 prec.
Foreign Intervention
0.57
2822 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Kenya
104 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Debt Sustainability Crisis Constrains Public Services
banking and financial crisis
2024
Gen Z-Led Protests Force Finance Bill Withdrawal
mass protest
2024
Cabinet Dismissed — Broad-Based Government Formed
government formation
2024
Kenya Leads Renewable Energy Transition
renewable energy
2023
Finance Act Sparks Labour and Civil Society Protests
mass protest
2023
Nairobi Africa Climate Summit — Nairobi Declaration
climate agreement
2023
Kenya Commits to Lead UN-Mandated Haiti Mission
foreign intervention
2022
Ruto Wins Closely Contested Presidential Election
elections and voting
2022
Economic Hardship and Cost-of-Living Crisis
economic recession
2021
Supreme Court Strikes Down Building Bridges Initiative
constitutional change
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.