Lebanon
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Lebanon's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (11851 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Government Formation and Economic Recession. Across all categories, 74,994 precedent windows were identified — meaning Lebanon's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.67
11851 prec.
Government Formation
0.73
14074 prec.
Economic Recession
0.67
5242 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.67
4902 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.56
10434 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.55
5460 prec.
Mass Protest
0.44
3644 prec.
Political Repression
0.44
4414 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.44
4812 prec.
Political Violence
0.38
2364 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Lebanon
99 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Joseph Aoun Elected President; New Government Formed
government formation
2025
Post-War Recovery and International Reconstruction Engagement
postwar reconstruction
2024
Israel-Hezbollah War: Leadership Decimated; Ceasefire Reached
civil war and insurgency
2023
IMF Negotiations Stall; Depositor Protests Target Banks
economic recession
2023
Hezbollah-Israel Border War of Attrition Begins
interstate war
2022
Parliamentary Elections Produce Fragmented Result; Presidential Vacuum Returns
elections and voting
2022
Lebanon-Israel Maritime Border Agreement
bilateral treaty
2021
State Infrastructure Collapses: Electricity, Fuel, and Judiciary
economic recession
2020
Beirut Port Explosion Devastates Capital
natural disaster
2020
Lebanese Pound Collapses, Hyperinflation Begins
currency crisis
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.