Libya
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Libya's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (8118 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Terrorist Attack and Political Violence. Across all categories, 56,708 precedent windows were identified — meaning Libya's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.37
8118 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.78
4409 prec.
Political Violence
0.63
2982 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.60
4652 prec.
Foreign Intervention
0.60
2943 prec.
Government Formation
0.55
8759 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.45
5994 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.45
2907 prec.
Economic Recession
0.42
4131 prec.
Sanctions And Arms Embargo
0.32
2019 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Libya
82 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Election Talks Make Limited Progress
elections and voting
2024
Central Bank Governor Crisis and Fuel Shortages
economic recession
2024
Migration Crisis Continues Through Libya
migration and refugees
2023
Derna Flood Disaster Kills Thousands
natural disaster
2023
Tripoli Militia Violence Resurges
political violence
2022
Dual Government Crisis Deepens
government formation
2021
Government of National Unity Formed
government formation
2021
Presidential Elections Planned but Postponed
elections and voting
2020
Berlin Conference on Libya
peacekeeping and peace process
2020
Turkish Military Intervention Reverses Haftar
foreign intervention
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.