Lithuania
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Lithuania's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Economic Growth (4403 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Economic Diversification and Presidential Election. Across all categories, 26,664 precedent windows were identified — meaning Lithuania's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Economic Growth
0.84
4403 prec.
Economic Diversification
0.68
2653 prec.
Presidential Election
0.59
1573 prec.
Economic Reform
0.56
2444 prec.
Economic Recovery
0.45
1308 prec.
Environmental Initiative
0.38
4170 prec.
Environmental Conservation
0.31
2145 prec.
Social Welfare Program
0.31
1119 prec.
Social Policy Reform
0.29
2491 prec.
Cultural Event
0.27
858 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Lithuania
45 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Lithuania Synchronizes Power Grid with Continental Europe
energy policy
2024
Social Democrats Win 2024 Seimas Elections
elections and voting
2023
Nauseda Re-elected President
elections and voting
2022
Kaliningrad Transit Dispute with Russia
trade dispute
2022
Lithuania Leads Baltic Support for Ukraine
foreign aid and development
2022
Lithuania Raises Defense Spending Above 2.5% of GDP
fiscal policy change
2021
Lithuania Opens Taiwanese Representative Office, Triggering China Dispute
diplomatic rupture
2021
Belarus Weaponizes Migration on Lithuanian Border
migration and refugees
2020
Ingrida Simonyte Becomes Prime Minister
government formation
2019
Gitanas Nauseda Elected President
elections and voting
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.