Madagascar
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Madagascar's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (15460 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Government Formation and Social Policy Reform. Across all categories, 57,321 precedent windows were identified — meaning Madagascar's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Madagascar
54 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Political Opposition Organizes for Electoral Reform Ahead of Next Cycle
democratic transition
2024
Ambatovy Nickel Mine Faces Closure Risk as Nickel Prices Collapse
economic recession
2023
Rajoelina Re-elected in Opposition-Boycotted Controversial Election
elections and voting
2022
Cyclone Batsirai Kills 121, Displaces 120,000 on Eastern Coast
flood and cyclone
2020
COVID-19 Pandemic Eliminates Tourism Revenue, Government Promotes Unproven Remedy
epidemic and pandemic
2020
UN Declares First Climate-Driven Famine in Grand Sud Region
drought and famine
2018
Presidential Election: Rajoelina Defeats Ravalomanana in Credible Runoff
elections and voting
2017
Cyclone Enawo Kills 81, Destroys 30% of Vanilla Crop
flood and cyclone
2017
Urban Pneumonic Plague Outbreak Kills Over 200, Draws WHO Emergency Response
epidemic and pandemic
2013
Presidential Elections Restore Constitutional Rule, End Transition
elections and voting
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.