Maldives
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Maldives's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Political Reform (2974 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Economic Growth and Economic Diversification. Across all categories, 28,070 precedent windows were identified — meaning Maldives's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Political Reform
0.71
2974 prec.
Economic Growth
0.62
4158 prec.
Economic Diversification
0.52
3098 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.44
1911 prec.
Economic Recovery
0.42
2452 prec.
Economic Reform
0.37
2636 prec.
Economic Initiative
0.27
1724 prec.
Environmental Initiative
0.24
3507 prec.
Healthcare Improvement
0.21
2365 prec.
Environmental Conservation
0.19
1890 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Maldives
41 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Muizzu signs 20 agreements with China during state visit to Beijing
bilateral treaty
2024
Maldives signs defense agreement with China as Indian troops depart
bilateral treaty
2024
PNC wins parliamentary supermajority consolidating Muizzu's mandate
elections and voting
2024
Debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 115 percent amid fiscal crisis warnings
banking and financial crisis
2023
Mohamed Muizzu wins presidency on India Out platform
elections and voting
2023
Muizzu formally requests withdrawal of Indian military personnel
diplomatic rupture
2022
Yameen sentenced to 11 years for resort island bribery and embezzlement
political corruption
2021
Nasheed survives assassination attempt by IED blast in Male
terrorist attack
2021
Tourism rebounds to 1.3 million arrivals after pandemic collapse
economic recovery
2020
COVID-19 border closure devastates tourism-dependent economy
epidemic and pandemic
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.