Mali
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Mali's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (9906 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Fiscal Policy Change and Government Formation. Across all categories, 52,058 precedent windows were identified — meaning Mali's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
0.97
9906 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.66
11713 prec.
Government Formation
0.53
16006 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.31
5684 prec.
Cultural And Heritage
-0.05
1308 prec.
Environmental Policy
-0.11
3111 prec.
Social Policy Reform
-0.13
2456 prec.
Foreign Direct Investment
-0.36
884 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
-1.07
990 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Mali
52 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Junta Indefinitely Postpones Elections — Military Rule Entrenched
executive power consolidation
2024
Mali Formally Withdraws from ECOWAS
regional integration
2023
Junta Expels MINUSMA — UN Peacekeeping Mission Ends
diplomatic rupture
2023
Alliance des États du Sahel Formed — Mali Pivots from ECOWAS
regional integration
2022
France Ends Operation Barkhane — Troops Withdrawn from Mali
diplomatic rupture
2022
Moura Massacre — Wagner and Malian Forces Kill 500 Civilians
human rights violation
2021
Second Coup by Goïta Installs Full Military Control
military coup
2021
Wagner Group Mercenaries Deployed in Mali
foreign intervention
2020
Mass Protests and M5-RFP Coalition Demand IBK's Resignation
mass protest
2020
Military Coup Removes IBK — Goïta's Junta Takes Power
military coup
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.