Mauritania
HIGH RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Mauritania's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Military Coup (2017 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Constitutional Change and Presidential Election. Across all categories, 28,207 precedent windows were identified — meaning Mauritania's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Military Coup
1.22
2017 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.84
2980 prec.
Presidential Election
0.77
2402 prec.
Economic Reform
0.60
3287 prec.
Judicial Reform
0.54
1537 prec.
Trade Agreement
0.48
2425 prec.
Anticorruption Measure
0.42
1721 prec.
Covid19 Response
0.40
1530 prec.
Environmental Policy
0.30
3256 prec.
Economic Recovery
0.27
1139 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Mauritania
42 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
EU Signs 210 Million Euro Migration Partnership
bilateral treaty
2024
Ghazouani Re-elected for Second Presidential Term
elections and voting
2024
First Gas Flows at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim
economic growth
2023
Abdel Aziz Convicted and Sentenced to Prison
executive transition
2023
Severe Sahel Drought Displaces Pastoral Communities
natural disaster
2021
EU Renews Fisheries Partnership Agreement
bilateral treaty
2021
G5 Sahel Joint Force Weakened by Regional Coups
diplomatic relations
2020
Abdel Aziz Arrested on Corruption Charges
executive transition
2020
COVID-19 Economic Emergency and Debt Relief
economic crisis
2019
Ghazouani Wins Presidency in First Peaceful Transfer
executive transition
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.