Mexico
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Mexico's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Elections And Voting (8108 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Human Rights Violation and Migration And Refugees. Across all categories, 66,903 precedent windows were identified — meaning Mexico's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Elections And Voting
0.93
8108 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.72
5965 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.64
3601 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.60
8709 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.53
5412 prec.
Ethnic And Communal Conflict
0.47
3052 prec.
Political Repression
0.47
4301 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.44
1403 prec.
Political Corruption
0.44
5484 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.42
5381 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Mexico
114 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Mexico Navigates US Tariff Threats Under Trump's Return
bilateral treaty
2025
USMCA Review Scheduled for 2026 Creates Trade Uncertainty
trade and commerce
2025
First Popular Judicial Elections Generate Controversy
elections and voting
2025
Migration Policy — Mexico as US Buffer State
migration and refugees
2024
Claudia Sheinbaum Elected First Female President of Mexico
elections and voting
2024
Judicial Reform — Elected Judges Replace Appointed Judiciary
constitutional change
2023
Claudia Sheinbaum Nominated as Morena Presidential Candidate
elections and voting
2023
Fentanyl Crisis Strains US-Mexico Relations
multilateral agreement
2022
AMLO Electoral Reform Proposals Blocked
elections and voting
2022
Record Migrant Flows Through Mexico to US Border
migration and refugees
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.