Moldova
HIGH RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Moldova's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Economic Recession (2232 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Judicial Reform and Constitutional Change. Across all categories, 20,505 precedent windows were identified — meaning Moldova's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Economic Recession
1.29
2232 prec.
Judicial Reform
1.00
1644 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.90
2268 prec.
Presidential Election
0.80
1475 prec.
Parliamentary Election
0.68
1134 prec.
Trade Agreement
0.66
2362 prec.
Economic Challenge
0.63
1608 prec.
Political Reform
0.57
925 prec.
Economic Reform
0.55
2330 prec.
Economic Growth
0.54
1570 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Moldova
52 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Gazprom Cuts Off All Gas Supplies to Moldova
economic crisis
2025
PAS Retains Parliamentary Majority in Pro-EU Victory
elections and voting
2024
EU Accession Negotiations Officially Opened
diplomatic relations
2024
Constitutional Referendum Enshrines EU Integration Goal
constitutional change
2024
Maia Sandu Re-elected President for Second Term
executive transition
2023
Constitutional Court Bans Shor Party for Threatening Statehood
judicial reform
2023
European Political Community Summit Held in Chisinau
diplomatic relations
2022
Moldova Granted EU Candidate Status
diplomatic relations
2022
Refugee Crisis from Russian Invasion of Ukraine
migration and refugees
2021
PAS Wins Snap Parliamentary Elections with Pro-EU Mandate
elections and voting
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.