Mongolia
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Mongolia's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Presidential Election (2489 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Parliamentary Election and Economic Growth. Across all categories, 23,549 precedent windows were identified — meaning Mongolia's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Presidential Election
0.95
2489 prec.
Parliamentary Election
0.69
1477 prec.
Economic Growth
0.64
2662 prec.
Economic Diversification
0.63
2570 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.52
1541 prec.
Economic Reform
0.39
1596 prec.
Environmental Initiative
0.34
3086 prec.
Economic Challenge
0.33
1131 prec.
Social Welfare Program
0.26
983 prec.
Environmental Protection
0.26
1008 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Mongolia
51 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Mongolia Demands Renegotiation of Oyu Tolgoi Revenue Terms
trade policy
2025
PM Oyun-Erdene Resigns After Anti-Corruption Protests
protest and civil unrest
2024
Record Dzud Kills 8.1 Million Livestock
natural disaster
2024
Expanded Parliament Elected Under New Mixed System
elections and voting
2023
Constitutional Reform Expands Parliament to 126 Seats
constitutional change
2023
US-Mongolia Strategic Third Neighbor Partnership Elevated
diplomatic relations
2023
Oyu Tolgoi Underground Mine Begins Production
economic growth
2022
Coal Smuggling Scandal Sparks Mass Protests
protest and civil unrest
2022
Rio Tinto and Mongolia Settle Oyu Tolgoi Dispute
bilateral treaty
2021
Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh Wins Presidency with Record 68 Percent
elections and voting
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.