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Mozambique

MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026

Mozambique's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (11814 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Government Formation and Military Policy And Reform. Across all categories, 41,598 precedent windows were identified — meaning Mozambique's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.

Risk Breakdown by Category

Fiscal Policy Change
0.65
11814 prec.
Government Formation
0.52
14747 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
0.30
6208 prec.
Social Policy Reform
-0.01
4879 prec.
Infrastructure Project
-0.04
1836 prec.
Flood And Cyclone
-0.29
1803 prec.
Foreign Direct Investment
-0.66
311 prec.

Top Precedents by Pattern Tier

RankCategorySaliencePrecedentsLast Event
1Fiscal Policy Change0.6369592025
2Government Formation0.51100862025
3Military Policy And Reform0.4346402025
4Social Policy Reform0.0328152012
5Infrastructure Project-0.037502009
6Flood And Cyclone-0.403522019
7Foreign Direct Investment-0.611622021

Curated Events — Mozambique

53 events (1990–present)
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Daniel Chapo Inaugurated as Fourth President Amid Unrest
political transition
2024
Disputed Election Sparks Mass Protests and Over 300 Deaths
elections and referendums
2022
ENI Coral Sul FLNG Produces First Mozambican LNG Cargo
energy policy
2021
Palma Attack Forces Suspension of Total LNG Project
terrorism and extremism
2021
Rwanda Deploys Special Forces to Cabo Delgado
military intervention
2020
TotalEnergies Makes $20 Billion LNG Final Investment Decision
energy policy
2019
Cyclone Idai Devastates Beira — Africa's Worst Modern Storm
natural disaster
2019
RENAMO Peace Agreement Signed — Decentralization Deal
peace negotiation
2018
RENAMO Leader Afonso Dhlakama Dies
political transition
2017
Islamist Insurgency Emerges in Cabo Delgado
terrorism and extremism
Explore full precedent evidence for Mozambique→

QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.