Myanmar
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Myanmar's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (7699 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Human Rights Violation and Political Repression. Across all categories, 43,999 precedent windows were identified — meaning Myanmar's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.53
7699 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.94
5832 prec.
Political Repression
0.94
6022 prec.
Mass Protest
0.78
4716 prec.
Economic Recession
0.59
3298 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.57
4713 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.45
2412 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.40
3673 prec.
Military Coup
0.35
1955 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.21
2464 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Myanmar
70 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Myanmar Civil War Enters Fifth Year with No Settlement in Sight
civil war and insurgency
2024
Arakan Army Captures Most of Rakhine State Including Bangladesh Border
civil war and insurgency
2024
Humanitarian Crisis — Over 3 Million Internally Displaced
humanitarian crisis
2023
Operation 1027 — Ethnic Forces Overrun Junta Positions in Shan State
civil war and insurgency
2023
Junta Conscription Law Triggers Mass Flight of Young People
migration and refugees
2022
Aung San Suu Kyi Sentenced to 27 Years in Secret Junta Trials
political repression
2022
Junta Executes Four Democracy Activists — First Executions in Decades
human rights violation
2022
Myanmar Economy Collapses Under Junta Rule
economic recession
2021
Military Coup — Tatmadaw Seizes Power on February 1
military coup
2021
Civil Disobedience Movement and Mass Spring Revolution Protests
mass protest
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.