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Azerbaijan

MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026

Azerbaijan's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (41054 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Government Formation and Social Policy Reform. Across all categories, 175,109 precedent windows were identified — meaning Azerbaijan's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.

Risk Breakdown by Category

Fiscal Policy Change
0.80
41054 prec.
Government Formation
0.54
42262 prec.
Social Policy Reform
0.15
27876 prec.
Infrastructure Project
-0.01
14522 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
-0.18
17404 prec.
Environmental Policy
-0.23
8553 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
-0.35
10708 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
-0.60
12730 prec.

Top Precedents by Pattern Tier

RankCategorySaliencePrecedentsLast Event
1Fiscal Policy Change0.74268452025
2Government Formation0.54302212025
3Social Policy Reform0.17175952025
4Infrastructure Project0.0078562025
5Environmental Policy-0.1934052024
6Civil War And Insurgency-0.2371152023
7Military Policy And Reform-0.5242962020
8Bilateral Treaty-0.5917822023

Curated Events — Azerbaijan

49 events (1990–present)
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Treaty Negotiations Continue Without Resolution
bilateral treaty
2025
Southern Gas Corridor Expansion Advances as Europe Seeks Alternatives to Russia
oil and gas
2024
COP29 Hosted in Baku — Oil State Leads Global Climate Talks
climate agreement
2024
Snap Presidential Election Extends Aliyev's Grip to 2031
elections and voting
2023
Lachin Corridor Blockade Forces Armenians From Karabakh
human rights violation
2022
EU-Azerbaijan Energy Partnership Signed After Russian Gas Crisis
oil and gas
2022
September Military Offensive Against Armenia Mainland
interstate war
2021
Shusha Declaration Formalizes Azerbaijan-Turkey Military Alliance
bilateral treaty
2020
Second Karabakh War — Azerbaijan Defeats Armenia in 44 Days
interstate war
2020
Shusha Recaptured, Declared Azerbaijan's Second Capital
interstate war
Explore full precedent evidence for Azerbaijan→

QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.