Nepal
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Nepal's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Government Formation (14427 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Fiscal Policy Change and Bilateral Treaty. Across all categories, 47,204 precedent windows were identified — meaning Nepal's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Government Formation
0.58
14427 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.57
8312 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.45
9083 prec.
Environmental Policy
0.06
3481 prec.
Infrastructure Project
-0.06
301 prec.
Flood And Cyclone
-0.10
1753 prec.
Social Policy Reform
-0.11
935 prec.
Cultural And Heritage
-0.12
21 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
-0.16
3395 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
-0.19
2340 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Nepal
58 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Nepal's Hydropower Exports to India Accelerate
energy
2023
Jajarkot Earthquake Kills Over 150 in Western Nepal
natural disaster
2022
General Elections Produce Fractured Parliament
elections
2022
Magnitude 5.9 Earthquake Strikes Far-Western Nepal
natural disaster
2020
Nepal Communist Party Fractures — Political Crisis
political crisis
2020
COVID-19 Pandemic Devastates Nepal's Economy and Tourism
epidemic
2019
Nepal Revises Maps to Include Kalapani Territory
territorial dispute
2018
Nepal Communist Party Formed by UML-Maoist Merger
political party
2017
Federal and Local Elections Held Under New Constitution
elections
2016
Nepal Pivots to China After India Blockade
foreign policy
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.