Nicaragua
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Nicaragua's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (10667 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Government Formation and Human Rights Violation. Across all categories, 55,237 precedent windows were identified — meaning Nicaragua's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.53
10667 prec.
Government Formation
0.42
13200 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.37
6562 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.36
11894 prec.
Social Policy Reform
0.10
5888 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
-0.40
3578 prec.
Flood And Cyclone
-0.42
1156 prec.
Political Corruption
-0.91
1666 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
-1.05
626 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Nicaragua
59 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Nicaragua Ranked Among World's Most Authoritarian States
Authoritarianism & Repression
2024
Rosario Murillo's Role as Co-President Expands to Dominant Position
Political Stability & Succession
2023
Mass Emigration Reaches 15 Percent of Population Since 2018
Migration & Displacement
2023
Government Strips Citizenship from Hundreds of Exiled Critics
Human Rights & Atrocities
2022
222 Political Prisoners Exiled to United States, Stripped of Citizenship
Human Rights & Atrocities
2022
Bishop Álvarez Imprisoned, Church Broadcasts Suspended
Religion & Sectarianism
2022
Over 1,500 NGOs, Universities, and Cultural Institutions Forcibly Closed
Civil Liberties & Freedoms
2021
All Credible Opposition Presidential Candidates Arrested Before Election
Authoritarianism & Repression
2020
Government Rejects COVID-19 Emergency, Encourages Mass Gatherings
Public Health & Epidemics
2020
Hurricanes Eta and Iota Strike Caribbean Coast Two Weeks Apart
Natural Disasters & Crisis Response
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.