Nigeria
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Nigeria's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (5740 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Fiscal Policy Change and Economic Recession. Across all categories, 53,365 precedent windows were identified — meaning Nigeria's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.11
5740 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.83
6524 prec.
Economic Recession
0.78
5505 prec.
Political Repression
0.74
4587 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.72
5685 prec.
Political Violence
0.69
3360 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.68
3475 prec.
Mass Protest
0.65
3152 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.60
5850 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.58
4284 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Nigeria
127 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Tinubu's Economic Reforms Show Mixed Results
fiscal policy change
2025
Oil Production Recovery — NNPCL Restructured
energy policy and resources
2024
Hunger Protests — August 2024 Nationwide Demonstrations
social movements and protest
2024
CBN Foreign Exchange Reforms — Partial Naira Recovery
monetary policy change
2023
Tinubu Wins Disputed Presidential Election
elections and voting
2023
Fuel Subsidy Removal — Petrol Prices Surge Sixfold
fiscal policy change
2023
Naira Floated — Currency Crashes
currency crisis
2022
Naira Redesign Causes Cash Crisis
fiscal policy change
2021
Banditry and Kidnapping Crisis in Northwest
gang violence and crime
2021
Twitter Ban — Nigeria Restricts Social Media
media and press freedom
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.