North Korea
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
North Korea's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Military Policy And Reform (4789 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Bilateral Treaty and Constitutional Change. Across all categories, 35,843 precedent windows were identified — meaning North Korea's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Military Policy And Reform
0.77
4789 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.74
9879 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.68
3933 prec.
Political Repression
0.47
2567 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.32
2009 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.30
1230 prec.
Multilateral Agreement
0.22
2672 prec.
Foreign Intervention
0.22
1463 prec.
Diplomatic Rupture
0.17
1646 prec.
Executive Power Consolidation
0.01
886 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — North Korea
70 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
North Korea-Russia Mutual Defense Treaty Ratified
bilateral treaty
2024
DPRK Declares South Korea Principal Enemy; Abandons Reunification
constitutional change
2024
North Korean Troops Deployed to Russia for Combat
foreign intervention
2024
Constitutional Amendment Permanently Enshrines Nuclear Status
constitutional change
2023
Kim-Putin Summit: North Korean Weapons for Russia-Ukraine War
bilateral treaty
2023
First Military Reconnaissance Satellite Successfully Launched
military policy and reform
2022
Record 90 Missile Launches; ICBM Moratorium Broken
military policy and reform
2022
Nuclear Doctrine Law Codifies First-Use Posture
constitutional change
2021
Party Congress Admits Economic Failures; New Weapons Goals Set
military policy and reform
2020
North Korea Seals Borders Due to COVID-19
public health reform
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.