North Macedonia
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
North Macedonia's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Economic Recession (1162 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Economic Growth and Economic Reform. Across all categories, 14,284 precedent windows were identified — meaning North Macedonia's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Economic Recession
0.93
1162 prec.
Economic Growth
0.72
1606 prec.
Economic Reform
0.71
1854 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.70
1194 prec.
Economic Recovery
0.53
1072 prec.
Judicial Reform
0.50
705 prec.
Environmental Initiative
0.42
2285 prec.
Trade Agreement
0.38
963 prec.
Economic Initiative
0.37
795 prec.
Political Reform
0.35
534 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — North Macedonia
45 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
VMRO-DPMNE Wins Decisive Parliamentary and Presidential Elections
elections and voting
2024
Hristijan Mickoski Forms New Government
government formation
2022
Zaev Resigns After Local Election Defeat
executive transition
2022
French Proposal Accepted to Unblock EU Accession Talks
diplomatic relations
2022
EU Accession Negotiations Formally Opened
diplomatic relations
2021
Census Conducted After 19-Year Gap
constitutional change
2020
North Macedonia Joins NATO as 30th Member
diplomatic relations
2020
SDSM Narrowly Wins Parliamentary Elections
elections and voting
2020
Bulgaria Vetoes EU Accession Framework Over Identity Dispute
diplomatic relations
2019
Constitutional Amendments Formally Change Country Name
constitutional change
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.