Palestine
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Palestine's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Government Formation (728 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Humanitarian Crisi and Economic Crisi. Across all categories, 1,904 precedent windows were identified — meaning Palestine's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Government Formation
0.91
728 prec.
Humanitarian Crisi
0.51
94 prec.
Economic Crisi
0.45
103 prec.
Ceasefire Agreement
0.33
132 prec.
International Diplomacy
0.27
129 prec.
Diplomatic Effort
0.23
83 prec.
Economic Challenge
0.18
111 prec.
Pandemic Response
0.16
88 prec.
Infrastructure Development
0.05
129 prec.
Economic Struggle
0.04
98 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Palestine
62 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations Continue Amid Ongoing Operations
peacekeeping and peace process
2024
ICJ Orders Provisional Measures in South Africa v. Israel
diplomatic relations
2024
Mass Displacement and Famine Warnings in Gaza
humanitarian crisis
2024
ICC Issues Arrest Warrants for Israeli and Hamas Leaders
diplomatic relations
2024
Multiple Countries Recognize State of Palestine
diplomatic relations
2023
Israel Launches Major Raid on Jenin Refugee Camp
military conflict
2023
Hamas Launches October 7 Attack on Southern Israel
military conflict
2023
Israel Launches Large-Scale Military Operation in Gaza
military conflict
2023
Humanitarian Crisis Engulfs Gaza Under Total Siege
humanitarian crisis
2022
Jenin Raids Intensify as West Bank Violence Escalates
military conflict
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.