Bahrain
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Bahrain's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Economic Reform (6331 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Trade Agreement and Economic Diversification. Across all categories, 49,608 precedent windows were identified — meaning Bahrain's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Economic Reform
0.60
6331 prec.
Trade Agreement
0.56
6292 prec.
Economic Diversification
0.55
4476 prec.
Economic Growth
0.55
4972 prec.
Economic Recovery
0.50
4249 prec.
Covid19 Response
0.33
2640 prec.
Environmental Conservation
0.28
4242 prec.
Tourism Promotion
0.27
2536 prec.
Environmental Initiative
0.27
6774 prec.
Healthcare Improvement
0.27
4085 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Bahrain
47 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Sweeping Arrests Target Dissidents Amid Regional Tensions
political repression
2024
Bahrain Recalls Ambassador from Israel Over Gaza War
diplomatic rupture
2023
U.S.-Bahrain Comprehensive Security Integration Agreement
bilateral treaty
2023
Authorities Crack Down on Gaza Solidarity Protests
political repression
2022
Bahrain and Israel Sign First GCC-Israel Security Agreement
bilateral treaty
2022
Nabeel Rajab Released After Completing Six-Year Sentence
human rights reform
2021
Qatar Blockade Ends with Al-Ula Declaration
regional integration
2020
Bahrain Signs Abraham Accords with Israel
bilateral treaty
2020
COVID-19 Outbreak Devastates Jau Prison Population
epidemic and pandemic
2019
Three Men Executed Despite Torture Allegations
human rights violation
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.