Philippines
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Philippines's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (4231 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Elections And Voting and Political Repression. Across all categories, 42,603 precedent windows were identified — meaning Philippines's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
0.83
4231 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.80
5902 prec.
Political Repression
0.71
3763 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.67
2889 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.62
3112 prec.
Political Corruption
0.57
3280 prec.
Territorial Disputes
0.48
1832 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.48
3014 prec.
Government Formation
0.41
5943 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.40
1932 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Philippines
155 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Duterte Detained at ICC — Trial Proceedings Begin
transitional justice
2025
West Philippine Sea Confrontations Continue
territorial disputes
2025
2025 Midterm Elections — Marcos vs Duterte Political Battle
elections and voting
2025
OFW Remittances Remain Economic Lifeline
migration and refugees
2024
Philippines-US-Japan Defense Cooperation Deepens
international alliances
2024
Rodrigo Duterte Arrested on ICC Warrant
transitional justice
2024
Typhoon Season Causes Widespread Damage
natural disaster
2024
Marcos Jr. Midterm Consolidation Efforts
elections and voting
2023
Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement Expanded
international alliances
2023
Marcos-Duterte Alliance Fractures
government formation
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.