Poland
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Poland's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Elections And Voting (4428 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Political Repression and Multilateral Agreement. Across all categories, 28,405 precedent windows were identified — meaning Poland's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Elections And Voting
0.81
4428 prec.
Political Repression
0.46
1608 prec.
Multilateral Agreement
0.44
2951 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.44
4440 prec.
Political Corruption
0.29
1940 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.25
781 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.24
1256 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.23
1837 prec.
Human Rights Reform
0.22
1876 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.21
1204 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Poland
59 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Poland Hosts NATO Summit as Europe's Frontline Security Anchor
military alliances and coalitions
2023
October 2023 Elections — Tusk Returns, PiS Ousted After Eight Years
elections and political competition
2022
Russia Invades Ukraine — Poland Becomes NATO's Logistics Hub
military alliances and coalitions
2022
Poland Hosts Over 3 Million Ukrainian Refugees
migration and refugee crises
2022
Baltic Pipe Opens — Poland Achieves Independence from Russian Gas
energy security and policy
2021
Belarus Engineered Border Crisis — Hybrid Warfare on EU Frontier
migration and refugee crises
2020
Constitutional Tribunal Bans Abortion for Fetal Defects
gender equality and womens rights
2019
PiS Re-elected with Increased Share — Judicial Capture Deepens
elections and political competition
2017
Women's Black Protests Block Near-Total Abortion Ban
gender equality and womens rights
2016
Constitutional Tribunal Crisis — Rule of Law Under Attack
rule of law and judicial independence
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.