Portugal
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Portugal's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Fiscal Policy Change (7913 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Government Formation and Social Policy Reform. Across all categories, 27,968 precedent windows were identified — meaning Portugal's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Fiscal Policy Change
0.80
7913 prec.
Government Formation
0.58
9551 prec.
Social Policy Reform
0.18
4481 prec.
Environmental Policy
0.04
1790 prec.
Infrastructure Project
-0.02
1388 prec.
Cultural And Heritage
-0.04
749 prec.
Sport And International Event
-0.05
386 prec.
Flood And Cyclone
-0.31
519 prec.
Democratic Transition
-0.46
521 prec.
Military Policy And Reform
-0.53
670 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Portugal
69 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Portugal Marks 50 Years Since Carnation Revolution
cultural and heritage
2025
Lithium Mining Controversy — Critical Minerals vs. Environment
resource conflict
2024
Chega Far-Right Surges — Third-Largest Political Force
elections and voting
2023
Costa Resigns Amid Corruption Investigation
political corruption
2022
Housing Affordability Crisis Intensifies in Lisbon and Porto
social policy reform
2021
Fastest COVID-19 Vaccination in Europe — Army-Led Campaign
public health reform
2020
COVID-19 — First State of Emergency Since 1974 Revolution
epidemic and pandemic
2020
Tourism Collapse — GDP Contracts 8.4%
economic recession
2019
Costa Wins Absolute Majority — Economy Near Full Employment
elections and voting
2017
Pedrogão Grande Wildfires Kill 66 — Worst in Portuguese History
natural disaster
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.