Russia
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Russia's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (6381 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Terrorist Attack and Political Repression. Across all categories, 56,554 precedent windows were identified — meaning Russia's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.53
6381 prec.
Terrorist Attack
1.14
4276 prec.
Political Repression
1.09
5560 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.74
9113 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.73
4465 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.58
2811 prec.
Multilateral Agreement
0.53
5123 prec.
Mass Protest
0.52
2720 prec.
Economic Recession
0.51
5325 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.51
3016 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Russia
304 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Trump-Putin ceasefire negotiations begin over Ukraine
bilateral treaty
2025
Russia continues advancing in eastern Ukraine
civil war and insurgency
2025
Western sanctions pressure intensifies on Russian economy
international sanctions
2025
Russia expands military presence in Africa
bilateral treaty
2025
Russian oil revenues resilient despite sanctions
energy policy and resources
2024
Alexei Navalny dies in Arctic penal colony
political repression
2024
Putin wins fifth presidential term with 87 percent
elections and voting
2024
Crocus City Hall terrorist attack kills 145 in Moscow
terrorism and extremism
2024
Russia captures Avdiivka after months of attritional fighting
civil war and insurgency
2024
North Korea sends troops to support Russia in Ukraine
civil war and insurgency
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.