Somalia
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Somalia's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (3788 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Terrorist Attack and Foreign Intervention. Across all categories, 19,217 precedent windows were identified — meaning Somalia's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.59
3788 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.98
1871 prec.
Foreign Intervention
0.67
1036 prec.
Political Repression
0.60
1139 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.50
1547 prec.
Fiscal Policy Change
0.43
1436 prec.
Government Formation
0.43
2459 prec.
Economic Recession
0.34
814 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.32
1575 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.24
716 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Somalia
60 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Somali Economy Shows Recovery Signs Amid Persistent Poverty
economic recovery
2023
ATMIS Replaces AMISOM with Drawdown Mandate
foreign intervention
2022
Famine Declared Amid Worst Drought in 40 Years
drought and famine
2022
Total War Declared Against Al-Shabaab
civil war and insurgency
2021
Constitutional Crisis: Farmaajo Extends Term Unconstitutionally
constitutional change
2020
Desert Locust Invasion Devastates Agriculture
drought and famine
2019
Political Tensions Paralyze Federal-State Relations
decentralization and federalism
2018
Somalia Begins HIPC Debt Relief Process
fiscal policy change
2017
Mogadishu Truck Bomb Kills Over 500 People
terrorist attack
2016
Federal Member States Established Across Somalia
decentralization and federalism
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.