South Africa
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
South Africa's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Political Corruption (3273 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Elections And Voting and Epidemic And Pandemic. Across all categories, 33,716 precedent windows were identified — meaning South Africa's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Political Corruption
0.95
3273 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.81
3622 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.73
2170 prec.
Government Formation
0.71
5714 prec.
Mass Protest
0.68
2655 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.63
2684 prec.
Political Repression
0.51
1621 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.42
3574 prec.
Economic Recession
0.42
2257 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.42
804 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — South Africa
154 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
GNU Coalition Tensions — Stability Tests
government formation
2025
National Health Insurance Controversy Continues
public health and epidemics
2025
Economic Stagnation and Youth Unemployment Crisis
social welfare and poverty
2024
MK Party Shocks — ANC Loses Parliamentary Majority
elections and voting
2024
Government of National Unity Formed Under Ramaphosa
government formation
2024
Zuma Barred from Parliament — MK Party Legal Battle
constitutional change
2024
Eskom Load Shedding Ends — Temporary Grid Stabilization
energy policy and resources
2023
Russian Navy Exercises and Lady R Weapons Controversy
diplomatic rupture
2023
Jacob Zuma Faces Criminal Trial — Arms Deal Charges
political corruption
2023
Load Shedding Reaches Record Duration — Electricity State of Disaster
energy policy and resources
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.