Sri Lanka
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Sri Lanka's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (4232 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Government Formation and Fiscal Policy Change. Across all categories, 17,729 precedent windows were identified — meaning Sri Lanka's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Sri Lanka
51 events (1990–present)1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
AKD wins presidency — first non-UNP/SLFP leader since independence
elections and political transitions
2023
IMF approves $2.9 billion bailout for Sri Lanka
imf world bank interventions
2022
Economic collapse — sovereign default and 50% inflation
foreign debt and financial crises
2022
Aragalaya protests force Gotabaya Rajapaksa from power
popular uprisings and revolutions
2022
Parliament elects Wickremesinghe president to manage IMF talks
elections and political transitions
2021
Overnight organic farming ban causes agricultural collapse
agricultural and food security
2019
Easter Sunday bombings kill 269 — worst attack since civil war
terrorism and political violence
2019
Gotabaya Rajapaksa elected president on security platform
elections and political transitions
2018
Constitutional crisis as president sacks PM illegally
democratic backsliding
2015
Sirisena defeats Rajapaksa; democratic reforms restored
elections and political transitions
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.