Sudan
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Sudan's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (1818 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Military Coup and Human Rights Violation. Across all categories, 20,161 precedent windows were identified — meaning Sudan's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.24
1818 prec.
Military Coup
0.88
1415 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.85
1867 prec.
Economic Recession
0.67
1642 prec.
Mass Protest
0.62
1978 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.53
1227 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.50
824 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.49
2956 prec.
Political Repression
0.47
819 prec.
Political Violence
0.46
1477 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Sudan
90 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Sudan War Enters Third Year — International Accountability Efforts
civil war and insurgency
2024
Famine Declared in Sudan
natural disaster
2023
RSF-SAF Civil War Erupts — April 15
civil war and insurgency
2023
El Fasher and Darfur Atrocities — Genocide Renewed
genocide and mass atrocity
2023
Humanitarian Catastrophe — World's Worst Displacement Crisis
migration and refugees
2022
Hamdok Resigns; Political Deadlock and Human Rights Crisis
democratic transition
2021
October 25 Military Coup — Generals Seize Power; Resistance Committees Mobilize
military coup
2020
Abraham Accords Normalization with Israel; Juba Peace Agreement
peacekeeping and peace process
2019
Sudan Revolution — Bashir Overthrown After 30 Years
democratic transition
2019
June 3 Massacre by RSF Forces
political violence
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.