Syria
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Syria's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (2896 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Terrorist Attack and Political Repression. Across all categories, 24,516 precedent windows were identified — meaning Syria's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.41
2896 prec.
Terrorist Attack
1.16
2457 prec.
Political Repression
0.74
1980 prec.
Economic Recession
0.68
1990 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.65
3724 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.64
1354 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.62
1386 prec.
Political Corruption
0.46
1508 prec.
Government Formation
0.45
2010 prec.
Multilateral Agreement
0.40
1740 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Syria
173 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
HTS-Led Transitional Authority Establishes Interim Government
government formation
2025
International Community Debates Lifting Syria Sanctions
international sanctions
2025
Syrian Refugees Face Complex Return Questions
migration and refugees
2025
Kurdish Autonomous Authority Negotiates Future Status
constitutional change
2025
War Crimes Accountability: Investigations and Documentation Begin
transitional justice
2025
Reconstruction Challenge: Syria Faces Decades of Rebuilding
postwar reconstruction
2024
HTS Launches Lightning Offensive, Capturing Aleppo in Days
civil war and insurgency
2024
Assad Regime Collapses: Bashar Flees to Russia
coup and political takeover
2024
Sednaya Prison Opened: Scale of Horror Revealed
human rights
2024
Israeli Forces Seize Buffer Zone and Advance Into Syrian Territory
civil war and insurgency
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.