Tajikistan
HIGH RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Tajikistan's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Political Repression (1315 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Political Corruption and Human Rights Violation. Across all categories, 8,114 precedent windows were identified — meaning Tajikistan's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Political Repression
1.58
1315 prec.
Political Corruption
0.80
609 prec.
Human Rights Violation
0.78
655 prec.
Trade Agreement
0.75
1296 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.58
693 prec.
Natural Disaster
0.36
520 prec.
Regional Cooperation
0.35
409 prec.
Agricultural Development
0.27
445 prec.
Cultural Revival
0.26
492 prec.
Political Reform
0.24
268 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Tajikistan
53 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Parliamentary Elections Deliver Ruling Party Supermajority
elections and voting
2025
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Sign Historic Border Demarcation Treaty
bilateral treaty
2025
Taliban Fighters Cross Border into Tajikistan, Five Killed
military conflict
2023
Russia Tightens Migration Rules Affecting Tajik Workers
migration and refugees
2022
Deadly Crackdown on Pamiri Protests in GBAO
protest and civil unrest
2022
Kyrgyz-Tajik Border War Kills Over 100
military conflict
2021
Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan Triggers Border Security Crisis
security sector reform
2020
Rahmon Wins Fifth Term with 91% of Vote
elections and voting
2020
COVID-19 Denial Followed by Belated Pandemic Response
health sector initiative
2019
IS-Claimed Prison Riot in Vahdat Kills 32
political violence
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.