Thailand
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Thailand's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Mass Protest (2019 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Constitutional Change and Military Coup. Across all categories, 13,232 precedent windows were identified — meaning Thailand's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Mass Protest
1.09
2019 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.78
1951 prec.
Military Coup
0.77
935 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.76
1578 prec.
Civil War And Insurgency
0.67
842 prec.
Economic Recession
0.59
1106 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.50
1320 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.41
815 prec.
Democratic Transition
0.38
929 prec.
Political Corruption
0.34
572 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Thailand
61 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2024
Move Forward Dissolved; Paetongtarn Shinawatra Becomes PM
democratic transition
2023
Move Forward Wins Election but Is Blocked from Government by Senate
elections and voting
2023
Thaksin Returns from Exile After 15 Years, Begins Prison Term
political corruption
2021
Lèse-Majesté Prosecutions Multiply — Over 200 Cases Against Activists
political repression
2020
Future Forward Dissolved — Youth Protests Demand Monarchy Reform
mass protest
2020
COVID-19 Pandemic Collapses Tourism, GDP Contracts 6.1 Percent
epidemic and pandemic
2019
Disputed Election Returns Prayuth Despite Opposition Popular Majority
elections and voting
2018
Tham Luang Cave Rescue — International Operation Saves 13 Trapped
humanitarian crisis
2018
Eastern Economic Corridor Launched to Attract High-Technology Investment
industrial policy
2017
King Vajiralongkorn Proclaimed Rama X, Amends Constitution for Royal Powers
constitutional change
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.