Tunisia
MODERATE RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Tunisia's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Economic Recession (1468 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Terrorist Attack and Political Repression. Across all categories, 13,457 precedent windows were identified — meaning Tunisia's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Economic Recession
0.80
1468 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.75
1456 prec.
Political Repression
0.69
1412 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.67
2069 prec.
Mass Protest
0.64
1400 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.57
1352 prec.
Migration And Refugees
0.32
471 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.31
1107 prec.
Government Formation
0.29
1197 prec.
Epidemic And Pandemic
0.26
1056 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Tunisia
106 events (1990–present)1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Tunisia Faces Critical Economic Crossroads
economic recession
2025
Political Prisoners and Press Freedom Concerns Persist
human rights
2025
Youth Emigration Accelerates — Brain Drain Crisis
demographics and population
2024
Saied Re-elected in Low-Turnout Election
elections and voting
2024
Economic Pressure — Salaries Delayed, Debt Rising
economic recession
2024
Lampedusa Migration Crisis — Tunisians Among Largest Groups
migration and refugees
2023
Saied Scapegoats Sub-Saharan African Migrants
migration and refugees
2023
European Union-Tunisia Migration Deal Signed
bilateral treaty
2023
IMF Deal Remains Elusive — Subsidy Reform Rejected
economic recession
2023
Crackdown on Opposition Politicians and Civil Society
political repression
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.