Turkiye
HIGH RISKVerified events
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Turkiye's economic indicators show elevated risk signals. The strongest signal is in Civil War And Insurgency (1260 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Political Repression and Elections And Voting. Across all categories, 9,200 precedent windows were identified — meaning Turkiye's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Civil War And Insurgency
1.48
1260 prec.
Political Repression
0.97
802 prec.
Elections And Voting
0.67
739 prec.
Terrorist Attack
0.60
858 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.52
835 prec.
Political Corruption
0.44
650 prec.
Mass Protest
0.42
738 prec.
Bilateral Treaty
0.35
703 prec.
Diplomatic Rupture
0.33
753 prec.
Currency Crisis
0.30
342 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Turkiye
57 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu Arrested; Mass Protests Erupt
political repression
2025
Turkey Emerges as Key Actor in Post-Assad Syria
diplomatic relations
2024
AKP Suffers Historic Defeat in Local Elections
elections and voting
2024
Orthodox Monetary Policy Restored; Rates Reach 50 Percent
monetary policy
2024
Turkey Ratifies Sweden NATO Membership; F-16 Deal Linked
bilateral treaty
2023
Kahramanmaras Earthquakes Kill Over 50,000
natural disaster
2023
Erdogan Wins Presidential Runoff Despite Crises
elections and voting
2022
Turkey Blocks Sweden-Finland NATO Bids; Extracts Concessions
diplomatic relations
2022
Turkey Brokers Black Sea Grain Initiative
bilateral treaty
2021
Lira Loses 44 Percent as Central Bank Governor Fired
monetary policy
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.