Turkmenistan
MODERATE RISK
Scoring: V1.8.1
Updated: 4/13/2026
Turkmenistan's economic indicators show moderate risk signals. The strongest signal is in Presidential Election (366 historical precedent windows). Also notable: Constitutional Change and Economic Stimulu. Across all categories, 5,904 precedent windows were identified — meaning Turkmenistan's trajectory matches historical trajectories of countries that experienced these event types.
Risk Breakdown by Category
Presidential Election
0.74
366 prec.
Constitutional Change
0.53
355 prec.
Economic Stimulu
0.20
306 prec.
Economic Reform
0.15
226 prec.
Infrastructure Project
0.15
2069 prec.
Economic Diversification
0.14
212 prec.
Trade Agreement
0.10
266 prec.
Education Reform
0.09
617 prec.
Constitutional Amendment
0.09
174 prec.
Energy Sector Development
0.08
181 prec.
Top Precedents by Pattern Tier
Curated Events — Turkmenistan
39 events (1990–present)1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2025
Freedom House Ranks Turkmenistan Among World's Least Free
human rights violation
2024
Turkmenistan and Taliban Relaunch TAPI Pipeline Talks
oil and gas
2023
Halk Maslahaty Revived with Senior Berdimuhamedow as Chair
constitutional change
2023
Arkadag Smart City Inaugurated as New Provincial Capital
urban development
2022
Serdar Berdimuhamedow Succeeds Father in Dynastic Transfer
government formation
2021
Berdimuhamedow Named National Leader and Hero of Turkmenistan
executive power consolidation
2020
Government Denies COVID-19 Existence Despite WHO Concerns
epidemic and pandemic
2019
First Caspian Economic Forum Hosted in Turkmenbashi City
regional integration
2018
Caspian Sea Convention Signed at Aktau Summit
multilateral agreement
2017
Berdimuhamedow Re-elected Amid Worsening Economic Crisis
elections and voting
QGI surfaces economically-grounded risk candidates that analysts should examine. Risk tiers reflect historical precedent density, not probability forecasts.